Bitcoin hovered a little below $64,800 on Thursday, up about 1.2% over the past week, as bulls attempted to push the crypto asset back above the key $65,000 level.
New data indicates that its current market structure closely resembles a period that changed the course of the cycle.
Historic Signal
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said Bitcoin may have already formed its market bottom after a bullish divergence reappeared between BTC’s price and Net Capital Flows. According to Martinez, the last time the same divergence emerged, it marked the cycle bottom before the crypto asset rallied from around $15,000 to eventually reach $126,000.
He said, “The same signal is back,” which suggests that the indicator that identified the previous cycle low has returned. Earlier, Martinez pointed to another technical indicator that had turned bullish for BTC. He said the SuperTrend indicator had flashed a buy signal.
Doctor Profit has repeatedly expressed a similar view on Bitcoin’s current price range. The analyst has said that the $64,000-$54,000 range represents a buying opportunity, rather than trying to time the precise low.
“I won’t be able to predict the EXACT bottom, and everyone who claims he can is a liar. I’m good at predicting regions, and I appreciate your respect for that! My buying region indicates that this is the bottom region, and I’m preparing for that.”
Last week, Fidelity said its proprietary Yardstick metric had fallen to levels historically linked to undervaluation. The asset manager said similar readings have historically coincided with accumulation phases and relative market bottoms, while adding that if the current cycle follows past trends, October 2026 could become an important period for investors tracking Bitcoin’s long-term cycle.
Bottom Call Faces Skepticism
But not everyone believes Bitcoin has found its bottom. CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno, for one, stated that it is still too early to make that call. Moreno found that the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) on Binance has climbed to around 0.22, its highest level of the current cycle, even as BTC continues to trade near $64,000 and remains well below its previous highs.
The metric compares futures open interest to the amount of the crypto asset held in the exchange’s reserves. As a result, a higher reading indicates greater leveraged exposure relative to the exchange’s available BTC.
According to Moreno, leverage is built into the market, making the cryptocurrency more sensitive to even small price swings. A similar pattern emerged during the 2022 bear market, when the leverage ratio surged as Bitcoin approached its cycle low.
That period witnessed sharp volatility and repeated liquidations, with the market establishing a more durable base only after excess leverage had been flushed out. Moreno said the current setup shares similarities with that episode but warned that high leverage around the previous bottom was part of the instability, not confirmation that the market had already turned.
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