Bitcoin stayed around $65,000 on Friday after gaining nearly 4% over the past month. New data suggests the market may no longer be facing endless downside risk.
In fact, Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has fallen to -23, which, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, is a level that could be an optimal window for spot accumulation.
Seller Exhaustion
The Sharpe ratio measures the amount of return generated for each unit of risk or volatility. While a positive reading indicates returns have outweighed risk, a negative one reflects periods of severe drawdowns for investors. Martinez explained the current -23 reading indicates deep seller exhaustion rather than unlimited downside, which creates an “asymmetric” risk-to-reward entry point for long-term BTC investors.
He added that similar Sharpe ratio compressions in 2015, 2019, and 2022 coincided with final bear market capitulation phases.
Martinez had previously identified a rare technical setup on Bitcoin’s monthly chart that has historically appeared near the end of previous bear markets. While on-chain metrics such as MVRV and CVDD still indicate a possible cycle low between $40,000 and $50,000, Martinez said that a setup of three technical indicators – the RSI near 43.65, the CMO around -71, and a test of the 50-month moving average – historically appeared near major market bottoms.
A similar view has also been put forward by Grayscale, which said that BTC’s market bottom may be determined more by macroeconomic conditions than by the traditional four-year cycle.
While the cycle model suggests Bitcoin could bottom around September or October, the asset manager argued that it has matured and is increasingly influenced by broader economic trends, including US Federal Reserve policy and real interest rates. According to Grayscale, if the Fed avoids further rate hikes and economic growth remains resilient, BTC may have already reached its low.
$75K Hurdle
Not everyone, however, is convinced of that. For instance, trader Ardi said he would need to see the asset break above $75,000 before considering the asset’s $57,000 low as the final bottom of the current market cycle.
The trader argued that $75,000 represents the neckline of the previous range’s double-bottom pattern, and reclaiming that level would be the earliest sign that the higher-timeframe downtrend from $126,000 is beginning to lose validity. Even then, Ardi argued that a breakout alone would not be sufficient.
He said BTC would also need to either sustain an extended rally or trade sideways for several months, similar to its February rally, allowing time to strengthen the case that a lasting bottom has formed. At present, Ardi believes the evidence still weighs against that scenario. He went on to add that Bitcoin has not gone through a “genuine” bottoming phase or a late-stage capitulation, but has instead continued “grinding lower.”
He also pointed out that accepting $57,000 as the cycle low would imply the “shallowest” bear-market drawdown on record and a trough arriving roughly three months earlier than in previous cycles, despite the broader market structure remaining bearish.
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