Bitcoin’s slide to around $57,700 at the end of June may have completed the worst phase of its 2026 bear market, according to a new market update published by BIT on July 17.
After correctly anticipating much of BTC’s decline in the last few months, the crypto investment firm now says traders should assess whether that low marked the end of the correction or was merely a pause before another leg down.
Market Has Largely Followed Earlier Roadmap
BIT’s latest report builds on research it published on June 12, when it argued that Bitcoin had entered the final stage of its bear market. At the time, the firm outlined an Elliott Wave A-B-C correction pattern running from October 2025 that showed an initial selloff into the $60,000 to $69,000 range and a rebound toward $80,000 to $90,000, followed by a final Wave C drop during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which is due to end on July 19.
That forecast has mostly played out, with BTC first plunging from around $97,000 to $62,900 in February this year before it recovered to about $82,000 in May, an event that was described in the report as a “counter-trend rally within a bear market.” It then went lower and eventually hit $57,700 at the end of June after geopolitical tensions and changing expectations for US monetary policy weighed heavily on risk assets.
In the July 17 update, BIT acknowledged that it underestimated the impact of the conflict between the United States and Iran, which pushed inflation higher than expected, and the hawkish stance adopted by the new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh. Even so, the firm said that the broader price structure closely matched its original outlook.
The earlier report had also pointed to several technical signals supporting the possibility of a market bottom, including historically depressed sentiment and oversold stochastic readings. Furthermore, at the time, BTC had been trading well below its weekly moving average. The new update has now shifted attention to the 21-week moving average, which it described as an important gauge for determining whether the market has transitioned back into a longer-term uptrend.
Not Everyone Thinks the Same
However, not everyone reading the charts sees a bottom forming. Take, for instance, CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech, who wrote in a note aptly titled “You really think the bottom is already in?” that spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which were one of the biggest drivers behind the OG crypto’s rally in the last two years, have dropped notably in 2026.
In 2024, cumulative net inflows were more than 500,000 BTC, with 2025 recording similarly strong inflows of about 250,000 BTC. However, 2026 has seen the funds bleed out roughly 120,000 BTC, leading the analyst to ask:
“If ETF demand drove the rally up, how can you be bullish while that demand reversed completely?”
According to them, what the market is seeing is a headwind and not a tailwind.
Earlier this week, Bitcoin found itself above the $65,000 level after US CPI numbers came back much lower than the market had anticipated, but those gains were quickly taken away by sellers, and at the time of writing, the asset was trading near $63,000, down almost 3% in 24 hours and about 2% across one week. Furthermore, it’s over 50% below its all-time high.
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