XRP is trading near the $1.00 level, down about 9% in the last seven days and more than 52% over the past year.
But UK-based technical analyst ChartNerd is suggesting that the deeper the Ripple token falls from here, the better the potential risk-reward setup becomes, with a possible demand zone between $0.90 and $0.70 if $1.00 gives way.
What the Charts Are Saying
ChartNerd has been tracking this setup since at least June 12, when he published a thread laying out the macro picture. According to him, XRP spent most of 2023 and into late 2024, capped below $0.80/$0.70 resistance that acted as a ceiling up until there was a breakout in Q4 2024.
That breakout, he says, was what eventually pushed XRP to its all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025, and since then, the trend has gone the other way, with key moving averages lost and a weekly 20/50 EMA death cross confirming the structural change, and the asset dropping from its January 2026 peak of $2.40 all the way to where it is now.
Recall that in February, XRP hit a low of $1.12, after which it attempted a recovery, with a bunch of sideways trading eventually taking it near $1.55, where it was rejected. Per ChartNerd’s analysis, that rejection kick-started the current leg down to lows near $1.00 in June, putting it in what the market watcher called his “area of interest,” a zone where he has been keeping an eye out for a potential cycle bottom between now and Q4 2026.
In his view, the reason that zone matters is that the old resistance level from 2023 and 2024 could switch to support. And if XRP holds anywhere in the $0.90 to $0.70 range during any deeper market drop, the previous ceiling will become the floor.
“This is a high-interest support region, but confirmation still matters most, and we do not have it yet,” he wrote at the time.
But now, the analyst believes XRP’s decline is pushing it further into the area of interest, and the more it falls, “the stronger the risk-reward setup becomes.” He said that he’s also watching the 10-year Gaussian Channel, which, according to him, XRP is now entering, and which has not failed as a guardrail for as long as he has tracked it.
On the timing question, ChartNerd stated in a different post that there is a “very strong likelihood” that a market bounce could happen in the coming weeks as June ends, something that is consistent with what Bitcoin tends to do in midterm years. However, he added a caveat: it will probably be a relief rally that leads to a final drop in the last quarter of the year.
The On-Chain Picture
Elsewhere, analyst Ali Martinez said that XRP is testing a major volume block at $1.06, where on-chain data shows more than 830 million tokens changed hands. Below it, the next important clusters on the UTXO Realized Price Distribution are at $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51.
At the same time, another market watcher, CasiTrades, observed that XRP was at its “most critical moment” in the current cycle, with buy orders placed at $0.93 and a deeper Fibonacci level at $0.87, framing the current fear as part of how bottoms actually form, not as a reason to sell.
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