Bitcoin, Gold Post Worst YTD Returns Among Major Assets, Challenging Their Safe Haven Status
Bitcoin (BTC) and gold are the only two major asset classes in the red so far in 2026, posting year-to-date losses of 27% and 3%, respectively, according to market analyst Charlie Bilello.
What makes it unusual is not just the losses themselves but the combination, with both assets never having finished as the two worst performers among the majors in a calendar year, going back to 2011.
Rotation Showing Up Across Markets
The backdrop makes the situation harder to explain, as Bilello pointed out in a recent market report. Data he shared showed the S&P 500 was up around 9% on the year, and small-cap stocks had gained 19% in the same period. Furthermore, he noted that value stocks have jumped 15%, and emerging market equities were outperforming expectations.
Basically, everything is in positive territory except for gold and BTC, the two assets most commonly associated with protection against uncertain times as well as monetary debasement.
The analyst’s chart, which has tracked annual returns for the last 15 years, showed just how out of character this performance is for both assets. Gold posted gains of 63.7% in 2025 and 26.7% in 2024, while Bitcoin returned 121% in 2024 and had one of its best showings in 2013 when total returns hit 5,500%.
Looking at the long-run numbers, they’re also quite impressive, with BTC’s cumulative returns since 2011 sitting at 21,000,000%, annualized at 121.6%, while gold has returned 179% in total over the same period. And while the current drawdown doesn’t erase that history, it’s certainly raising questions about what role these assets are playing in 2026.
According to Bilello, part of what’s happening is down to rotation, with the tech sector seeing a 28% outperformance vs. the S&P 500 off the March lows, which he says is the largest such move ever recorded, being even bigger than the 1999-2000 dot-com run.
Tech now accounts for close to 40% of the S&P 500, some way above the 35% peak seen at the height of the dot-com bubble, and in such an environment, the market observer says capital has opted to move to assets with earnings momentum rather than staying on stores of value with little to no yield.
Price Action in Gold and BTC
At the time of writing, the world’s foremost cryptocurrency was trading above $66,000, having touched $67,000 for the first time in two weeks earlier in the day. That uptick followed news that the United States and Iran were due to sign a peace deal later in the week in Switzerland, which briefly lifted sentiment across risk assets.
Gold, meanwhile, is trading around $4,300 per troy ounce, with a weekly range between $4,025 and $4,340, and a 3% year-to-date dip that looks modest when compared to the cryptocurrency’s, even though it still represents an unusual reversal for an asset that spent much of the last two years at or near record highs.
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