XRP is sitting on what analyst EGRAG CRYPTO is calling a “macro decision zone,” with the next monthly candle close likely determining whether the token carves out a double bottom or slides toward $0.80.
Although the token has bounced back after touching a 19-month low of $1.05 last week, it still hasn’t cleared the levels that would give bulls any real confidence.
The Framework
According to EGRAG, a monthly close above $1.40 would confirm that the $1.05 low was the bottom. However, in their opinion, reclaiming $1.61 to $1.65 would be where genuine bullish recovery begins, with a break above $1.70 adding another layer of confirmation. Still, none of those levels have been touched as of now.
The analyst also made a case for the downside, saying that if XRP lost momentum, it could go back down to $0.80. Interestingly, they didn’t flag any intermediate support between the current price and that level if the structure breaks down.
“Hold ground then → double bottom possible,” they wrote. “Lose momentum then → $0.80 retest likely.”
Earlier, EGRAG pointed out that XRP had reached $1.1860 and was “building momentum for the second push,” placing a short-term target of $1.19 to $1.25. The analyst did warn that losing $1.14 would open the door to a retest of $1.10.
Fellow market watcher CasiTrades added a complementary read of their own, noting that the Ripple token had “perfectly” hit a major .786 macro Fibonacci support at $1.09 on Coinbase. The crypto trader also identified $1.19 and $1.27 as resistance zones that, if they failed, could lead to a deeper low toward the $0.90 area.
However, if XRP can push through both, it would suggest that the market is building a new trend rather than setting up for another wave lower.
XRP Recovery Amid SBI’s Reward Program Launch
Some traders are looking beyond daily price action, with one of them, ChartNerd, noting that XRP had closed below its 200-week simple moving average, a development that in the past came just before cycle lows.
At the time of writing, the world’s sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap had gained just over 1% in 24 hours. The uptick followed news that Japan’s SBI Bank had launched a program that lets customers exchange their deposit interest for Bitcoin, Ethereum, or XRP.
However, it was still down by more than 8% over the last seven days, underperforming the broader crypto market, which had shed about 5.4% of its value in the same period. XRP is also off over 18% across one month and nearly 49% year-on-year, while sitting 68% below its July 2025 all-time high.
But that decline isn’t all bad news, as on-chain analytics platform Santiment, using its 30-day MVRV metric, said the asset was in a “fair buy” zone where long-term investors could start accumulating.
Meanwhile, on the longer horizon, ChartNerd placed potential Fibonacci extension targets on XRP at $8, $13, and $27, as long as a proper cycle bottom forms before year-end.
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