A US Army soldier has been charged with using classified government information to profit from prediction market bets, according to an indictment unsealed by the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York.
Authorities said Gannon Ken Van Dyke faces multiple charges, including unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and engaging in an unlawful monetary transaction.
Inside the $400K Bet
Prosecutors allege that Van Dyke used sensitive classified information obtained through his role in a US military operation known as “Operation Absolute Resolve” to place bets on the prediction marketplace Polymarket. The operation involved the capture of Nicolás Maduro, and Van Dyke was part of the planning and execution process, which gave him access to nonpublic details about the mission.
Despite having signed nondisclosure agreements as part of his military duties, which explicitly prohibited him from sharing or using classified information, Van Dyke allegedly used that knowledge for personal financial gain.
According to the indictment, between late December 2025 and early January 2026, Van Dyke created and funded a Polymarket account and placed approximately 13 bets tied to outcomes related to Venezuela and Maduro. These included contracts predicting whether US forces would be present in Venezuela by January 31, 2026, whether Maduro would be removed from power by that date, whether the United States would invade Venezuela, and whether US President Donald Trump would invoke war powers against the country.
All of Van Dyke’s positions reportedly backed the “YES” outcome on these events, and he wagered roughly $33,034 while in possession of classified information about the operation. US special forces apprehended Maduro and his wife in Caracas during the early hours of January 3, 2026, and Trump announced the successful operation later that day. Polymarket then settled several related contracts in Van Dyke’s favor, which resulted in large winnings. Prosecutors allege his total profits reached approximately $409,881.
Van Dyke allegedly moved most of the funds to a foreign cryptocurrency vault and later transferred them into a newly created online brokerage account. He also withdrew a significant portion of his proceeds from Polymarket on the same day as the operation.
As scrutiny around unusual trading activity in Maduro-related contracts began to circulate in media reports and on social platforms, Van Dyke allegedly took steps to hide his involvement. These actions included requesting the deletion of his Polymarket account under false pretenses and changing the email associated with his cryptocurrency exchange account to one not registered in his name.
Van Dyke is scheduled to appear before a US magistrate judge in the Eastern District of North Carolina. In a statement, FBI Director Kash Patel said,
“Today’s announcement makes clear no one is above the law, and this FBI will do whatever it takes to defend the homeland and safeguard our nation’s secrets. Any clearance holders thinking of cashing in their access and knowledge for personal gain will be held accountable.”
Kalshi’s Election Betting Probe
In a separate case, Kalshi recently suspended three US political candidates after finding out they traded on the outcomes of elections in which they were directly involved. The platform identified Matt Klein, Ezekiel Enriquez, and Mark Moran as participants. Klein and Enriquez each placed trades worth less than $100 on their own races, cooperated with the investigation, and accepted fines and five-year bans.
Moran, however, made multiple trades tied to his campaign, including before formally announcing his candidacy, and later stopped engaging with investigators. He was issued a larger penalty, ordered to return any profits, and also banned for five years.
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