Crypto markets posted some gains after Donald Trump delivered conflicting messages about a possible Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Ethereum, for one, climbed 5% over the past 24 hours.
But new data suggests that the crypto asset must break and hold a crucial level to confirm the beginning of its next bull cycle.
The $2,500 Barrier
According to analyst Ali Martinez, Ethereum’s next major rally may only begin once it reclaims its realized price around $2,500, which he describes as the crucial “start engine” level for a new bull phase. While ETH continues to hover near $2,100 and faces short-term volatility, Martinez stated that accumulation is likely taking place below this range, particularly if the $1,800 level continues to act as strong support within an ascending triangle pattern.
This level also closely aligns with the 0.80 MVRV pricing band near $1,880, which indicates a point where the market is under significant stress. The MVRV ratio compares Ethereum’s current price to the average price at which all ETH last moved, essentially showing whether holders are in profit or loss. When this metric drops to the 0.80 band, it means that most participants are holding at a loss, a condition that has, in previous instances, represented the end of sell-offs and the beginning of accumulation by stronger hands.
At the same time, chances of a deeper correction cannot be ruled out. If the broader structure turns out to be a parallel channel instead of a triangle, Ethereum risks revisiting lower levels, which will bring $1,550 and $1,070 into focus.
This downside scenario is supported by UTXO Realized Price Distribution data, which maps out where large amounts of ETH were last transacted. According to this data, there are strong clusters of buying activity at $1,584, $1,238, and $1,089. These levels represent areas where many investors previously entered the market.
The $2,500 mark for Ethereum’s next major upward move has historically served as the end of consolidation phases and the beginning of steady bullish trends. A clean break above this threshold, followed by a hold at that level, would confirm a structural change in the market. Once that happens, ETH could move into higher valuation zones. The analyst predicted $4,900 as the next major target and further upside toward the 2.40 MVRV band near $5,900.
Pre-Rally Setup
Another market expert, pseudonymously known as ” Trader Tardigrade,” also echoed a similar narrative playing out. As per their findings, Ethereum’s current price structure looks very similar to a past moment right before a major rally. Looking at the monthly chart, they observed that ETH is still holding above an important support level that has acted as a strong floor in the past.
In the previous market cycle, the altcoin showed a similar setup where it stayed above the support for a period before breaking out and rising sharply from under $100 to over $4,000.
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