TL;DR:
- XRP forms ABCDE correction end, with $2.65 support holding and $3.333 breakout level approaching.
- Short-term holder NUPL shows capitulation, echoing past bottom zones that preceded price recoveries.
- Binance XRP reserves spike to 3.5B, raising questions over potential selling or inactive supply.
XRP Forms Final Leg of Technical Correction
XRP is completing a multi-month triangle pattern that has followed the ABCDE structure often seen in corrective phases. The current move places price action near point (E), suggesting that the correction is almost complete. The range between $2.65 and $2.70 is acting as support.
This area also lines up with a prior wave (2) in a broader bullish setup. The pattern has remained intact so far, with no breakdown below the key support zone. The technical outlook points to a possible breakout if price holds and begins to move higher from this base.
A push above $3.3 is being watched as the breakout trigger. This level sits just above the triangle’s upper resistance. A clean move above it could mark the end of the current range and the start of a new trend.
Key resistance levels are marked at $2.85, $3, and $3.10, based on Fibonacci retracements. A close above $3.3 would place price back above all these points. The RSI is also beginning to rise after holding a base, which can signal momentum building. According to DefendDark:
Hi all!#XRP is nearing completion of the corrective action: ABCDE and preparing for Lift-off!
We are nearing the end of the consolidation.
After this consolidation, and reclaiming $3.333
nothing will be able to stop what’s coming.
Road to Double Digits #XRPArmy
Ohhh One… pic.twitter.com/u4LDOxf9Mx
— Dark Defender (@DefendDark) September 24, 2025
Short-Term Holders Show Signs of Capitulation
XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for short-term holders has dropped below zero. This indicates that many traders who bought recently are now holding losses. The chart from Glassnode shows that previous dips into this range, such as in late 2024 and again in April 2025, were followed by recoveries.
Steph Is Crypto commented:
BREAKING:#XRP IS CLOSE TO CAPITULATION FOR SHORT-TERM HOLDERS, WHERE PAST RECOVERIES BEGAN. pic.twitter.com/UV7Ascj9H7
— STEPH IS CRYPTO (@Steph_iscrypto) September 24, 2025
While this does not confirm a bottom, the setup is similar to past low points. Selling pressure may ease if holders are no longer exiting in high volume.
Binance Sees Spike in XRP Exchange Reserves
Above all, in September, there was a sharp increase of net inflows in Binance to an end of about 3 billion to one exceeding 3.5 billion: the highest level. Inflows may be due to user deposits, activity of trading desks, or simply mass preparations.
Price kept being in the region of $2.80 despite going reserves up. Buyers and sellers will likely be watching this closely to see if supplies will come on the market or just lie dormant.
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