The United States has secured majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s oil reserves, which could reshape global energy markets, but does it actually matter for bitcoin and crypto?
President Trump announced on Friday that the US had secured majority control through an agreement involving Washington, Venezuela, and private businesses. He called it the “biggest oil deal in world history” and said it would substantially increase America’s effective oil reserves and ultimately bring down fuel prices.
65 Billion Barrels, But There’s a Catch
The analysts at the Kobeissi Letter noted that the US currently has around 46 billion barrels of proven domestic crude reserves. Adding control over another 65 billion would bring the combined figure to over 110 billion, roughly 7% of global proven reserves. In other words, the US-controlled total would be around the same as the UAE’s and ahead of Kuwait’s.
According to some leaked details, the deal covers 17 Venezuelan oilfields, including projects in the resource-rich Orinoco Belt and Lake Maracaibo. A new structure would give the US a majority operational position, while American companies are expected to provide much of the capital and expertise needed to increase production.
Venezuela has also projected close to $100 billion in private investment tied to the broader agreement. However, here comes the catch. Those barrels are all reserves, not immediate supply.
Venezuela currently produces around 1.2 million barrels per day, a fraction of what its enormous resource base theoretically allows due to years of underinvestment, deteriorating infrastructure, power problems, and other issues. Reuters reported that even the country’s ports are already struggling with current export volumes, with some tankers waiting weeks to load.
Lower Oil Good for Bitcoin?
Oil has been one of the biggest inflationary pressures this year as the conflict in the Middle East and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude prices sharply higher. In general, more expensive oil feeds into fuel, transportation, manufacturing, and ultimately consumer prices.
If Venezuelan supply expands significantly over the coming years and helps decrease oil prices, the result could be weaker inflationary pressure, which, in turn, could give the Fed more room to ease monetary policy, unlike the present situation. This would be considered bullish for crypto, since the asset class tends to benefit from such macro conditions.
The deal, which was later confirmed by Venezuela’s President, comes at an interesting time – right after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole. He warned that inflation remains too high and indicated that policymakers could still have “work to do” if price pressures fail to move convincingly toward the central bank’s target of 2%.
If oil remains elevated due to the war in the Middle East, inflation is likely to continue preventing the Fed from pivoting. However, if Venezuela eventually becomes a substantial new source of reliable supply, the landscape can change.
Ultimately, the oil deal between the US and Venezuela is unlikely to translate into an immediate impact on BTC and crypto, as there’s no direct connection between the two. However, the long-term perspective is more bullish than bearish, especially if Venezuela improves its production lines and prices indeed fall, as Trump predicted.
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