Prediction market platform Kalshi has suspended three US political candidates after finding they traded on the outcomes of elections in which they were directly involved, describing the cases as “political insider trading.”
The actions follow the rollout of new safeguards designed to prevent candidates from betting on their own races.
Candidates Caught Betting on Themselves
The three individuals identified are Matt Klein, a sitting Minnesota State Senator running in the Democratic primary for the state’s 2nd Congressional District; Ezekiel Enriquez, a Republican primary candidate in Texas’s 21st Congressional District; and Mark Moran, a Democratic candidate in Virginia’s US Senate race.
In Klein’s case, Kalshi said its systems flagged that he traded a small amount, less than $100, on contracts tied to his own candidacy. The platform confirmed his identity using internal data and open-source intelligence, and Klein cooperated with the investigation and ultimately agreed to a settlement that included a $539.85 fine and a five-year suspension from the platform.
Enriquez was similarly found to have purchased under $100 worth of contracts tied to his own election. Kalshi pre-emptively blocked his trading after detection. He, too, later cooperated with the investigation and accepted a $784.20 penalty in addition to a five-year ban.
Moran’s case, on the other hand, involved multiple trades across two markets related to his campaign, including one placed before formally announcing his candidacy and additional trades afterward. Kalshi said Moran initially acknowledged the violations but later stopped responding and refused to settle.
As a result, he received a higher penalty of $6,229.30, was ordered to return any profits, and was also banned for five years.
Offering his version of events, Moran said that he deliberately placed the bets on himself on Kalshi to test whether the platform would act against him and how it would respond. He claimed he wanted to draw attention to what he described as corruption and manipulation in prediction markets.
According to Moran, he initially engaged with Kalshi’s compliance team but refused settlement terms that included a fine, a ban, and a requirement to make a public statement, citing First Amendment protections against compelled speech. He even went on to add that he expected the situation to generate attention.
No Exceptions for Low-Value Bets
Kalshi said all three cases violated its CFTC-approved Rule 5.17(z), which prohibits individuals with direct or indirect influence over an event’s outcome from trading on related contracts. The platform noted that while the trades were relatively small, any such activity is subject to enforcement. It further added,
“Cases like these demonstrate Kalshi’s commitment to policing all types of unfair or improper trading on our platform. Regardless of the size of a trade, political candidates who can influence a market based on whether they stay in or out of a race violate our rules. No matter how small the size of the trade, any trade that is found to have violated our exchange rules will be punished.”
These issues are not limited to Kalshi. In fact, concerns around insider activity in prediction markets have grown, particularly on its rival, Polymarket. CryptoPotato has extensively reported on controversial bets being placed on major geopolitical outcomes shortly before they happened.
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