Bitcoin has broken below the 100-day moving average at $113.4K, signaling growing bearish sentiment after the recent sell-off. The price is now consolidating in a critical zone where demand levels will dictate the next directional move.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has dropped beneath the 100-day MA, leaving the price caught between the 100-day ($113K) and 200-day ($104K) moving averages. This range often acts as a “no man’s land,” reflecting indecision until either buyers or sellers reclaim momentum.
The descending channel structure remains intact, suggesting persistent downward pressure unless bulls can defend the channel’s lower boundary near $109K. Holding above this region is essential to prevent deeper tests toward the 200-day MA and the $100K–$102K demand zone.
Notably, there is a visible sell-side liquidity pocket below $107K, which could draw the price lower in a liquidity sweep before any major reversal attempt unfolds.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin was rejected aggressively from $117K, triggering a cascade of selling. The decline has brought the price into a bullish flag structure, with BTC now hovering just above a key demand zone below $110K.
This area is vital for preserving bullish potential. If buyers defend it successfully, Bitcoin could stage a rebound toward recent highs. However, a breakdown here would likely accelerate the move toward the deeper liquidity pool near $100K, aligning with the 200-day MA. The next leg will depend on whether demand can withstand continued sell pressure or if sellers push the market into fresh lows.
Sentiment Analysis
By Shayan
The Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap (2-week view) reveals how recent volatility has been liquidity-driven. A substantial cluster of liquidations has formed above the $117K swing high, where aggressive selling forced longs into liquidation. This band highlights the heavy concentration of stop-losses and overleveraged longs that amplified the rejection.
In contrast, the heatmap shows no major liquidity clusters below the current price, implying that sellers may have already exhausted near-term downside liquidity. With Bitcoin stabilizing around $109K, this absence of downside targets may temporarily limit further declines, unless fresh order flow builds below.
For now, the market remains defined by this imbalance: the $117K liquidity band overhead acts as a cap where supply dominates, while the $109K demand base must hold to avoid a deeper slide toward the $100K zone.
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