Here’s What Could Signal a Bitcoin (BTC) Turnaround Next Year, According to Analyst Benjamin Cowen
Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says that Bitcoin (BTC) holders should be on the lookout for one signal that could mark the end of the king crypto’s extended bear market.
In a new video, Cowen tells his 779,000 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin’s current percentage drawdown from its all-time high is approaching a level that signalled the bottom of the 2018 and 2014 bear markets.
“Bitcoin is sort of in this range of being 75% down from the all-time high, so it’s sort of like in between. It’s not at the levels that it was at in this past summer, but it’s also not as far down as it historically goes either…
If the months pass us by and you see the percentage drawdown from all-time high for Bitcoin really start to match what you’ve seen in prior bear markets, it would be at least a sign that things could finally start to be turning.”
Bitcoin dropped over 80% from its all-time high during the 2014 and 2018 bear markets before bottoming out, according to the analyst’s chart. At time of writing, BTC is down 75.6% from its record high, which it hit in November last year.
The analyst is also keeping a close watch on the total market cap (TMC) percentage drawdown from the all-time high. According to Cowen, the market capitalization of all crypto assets is currently down 72% from its all-time high, which is still several percentage points away from the TMC drawdowns witnessed during the previous two bear markets.
The analyst says the difference in TMC drawdowns indicates that altcoins may have more downside potential if history repeats.
“Last cycle, the total market cap went down about 87%. The cycle before that, it only went down about 78%, but that was also when it was mostly just Bitcoin.
This discrepancy from 72% to 88% [TMC percentage drawdown from all-time high] compared to 75% to 85% [BTC drawdown from all-time high] or so is one of the contributing factors into considering why the dominance of Bitcoin is still poised to make a sustained move to the upside. It’s the fact that the altcoin market still has considerable ground that it could easily give up.”
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