The theory of crypto market cycles is one that’s been around for many years now. In essence, many traders and analysts are of the opinion that there’s a considerable bull market once every four years, usually predicated by the Bitcoin halving.
So far, that has been the case.
Within these major cycles, there are usually countless other mini-cycles where, during some instances, certain altcoins perform better than BTC and can deliver larger gains. But the risk of that is that if the user fails to exit their altcoin position in time, they might be left holding a bag that might never recover.
Is that the case for Cardano (ADA) holders?
The Opportunity Cost of Holding Cardano
The popular analyst Caleb Franzen recently took it to X to outline a painful truth about ADA.
Over the past 34 months, Cardano has lost 90% of its value relative to Bitcoin.
Don’t ignore opportunity cost… it’s costing ADA holders a lot of money.
Franzen continues his observation, pointing out that ADA is currently trading at its lowest point since December 2020.
In addition, ADA’s performance is shaky for many who’ve entered the market in the past few years:
The analyst also made an important conclusion:
This chart is generally embematic of why I only trade alts and I don’t invest in them… they can’t keep up with BTC over the long run.
It’s Not Just Cardano (ADA)
Of course, other altcoins also display similar patterns when compared against Bitcoin.
This is XRP’s chart against BTC in the last year:
This is ETH’s:
And this is TRX’s:
Of course, there are some altcoins that have outperformed BTC. For example, SOL and BNB are doing better in 2024. But the situation changes if we zoom out the chart to a certain degree.
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