With the U.S. presidential election just about nine months on the horizon, it appears that American electors are poised to encounter familiar faces from the 2020 race — Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Recent data from the decentralized crypto-based predictions platform Polymarket suggests that Trump, the nation’s 45th president, is currently leading with a 48% chance of victory.
2024 U.S. Election Forecast: Trump Ahead With 48% on Polymarket, Biden Trails
As the U.S. election competition intensifies, despite Vivek Ramaswamy‘s withdrawal, former President Donald Trump has maintained a substantial lead over his Republican rivals in recent months. Trump recently triumphed in the Iowa Caucus, securing the initial victory in the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race. He achieved a commanding lead with a 51% margin, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in second place, and former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., Nikki Haley, clinching the third spot.
According to the forecasting platform Polymarket, Donald Trump is favored with an 89% likelihood of securing the Republican party’s nomination, while Nikki Haley stands at a 6% probability. On the Democratic front, Joe Biden is predicted to have a 78% chance of nomination, outpacing California Governor Gavin Newsom’s 6% chance. Essentially, Polymarket operates as a decentralized platform for predictions, allowing users to buy and trade shares based on potential events and outcomes. This market leverages blockchain technology for enhanced transparency and security.
As the election approaches on Nov. 5, 2024, the current trends on Polymarket suggest Trump is the frontrunner with a 48% advantage, surpassing Biden’s 36%. Following Biden, Haley is seen with a 3% likelihood of winning the general election. Intriguingly, despite his absence from the race, Vivek Ramaswamy holds a 2% chance. Robert Kennedy Jr. also holds a 2% chance of victory, as indicated by Polymarket’s data. Furthermore, this cryptocurrency-driven prediction market is not the sole betting platform indicating a Trump victory.
Oddschecker’s data reveals Trump with a 45.5% likelihood of clinching the election, compared to Biden’s 33.3% probability. Nikki Haley is given a 5.9% chance of victory in their analysis. Meanwhile, the web portal Bet Ohio positions Trump in the lead with a 46% chance, Biden following at 36%, and Haley at 9% in the race for the 2024 presidency. Notably, both Kennedy and DeSantis are pegged at a 3% chance, as recorded by Bet Ohio on Jan. 17, 2024. Additionally, the betting site Covers indicates Trump is ahead with a 47.6% chance, while Biden trails behind at 34.8%.
What do you think about Polymarket predicting Trump winning the 2024 U.S. election? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.