Global investment bank Morgan Stanley believes that “crypto winter may be in the past and that crypto spring is likely on the horizon.” An analyst at the bank explained that historically, most of bitcoin’s gains come directly after a halving event that occurs every four years.
Morgan Stanley Foresees Crypto Spring
Global investment bank Morgan Stanley’s wealth management division published a report titled “Will Crypto Spring Ever Come?” this week. Morgan Stanley analyst Denny Galindo outlined that there are four phases of cryptocurrency prices. “The four-year cryptocurrency cycle roughly corresponds to the four seasons of the year,” he noted.
“Just as a farmer avoids planting seedlings in the winter or too late in the spring, crypto investors want to know when crypto spring has arrived to maximize their investment ‘growing season,’” the analyst opined. While stating that “there have only been three crypto springs to date” and acknowledging that “there is still a lot to learn,” he emphasized:
Based on current data, signs indicate that crypto winter may be in the past and that crypto spring is likely on the horizon.
Galindo described crypto spring as the period preceding each halving where “the price of bitcoin generally recovers from the cycle’s low point, but investor interest tends to be weak.” He pointed out that there have been three crypto winters since 2011, lasting about 13 months each.
The Morgan Stanley analyst further shared:
Historically, most of bitcoin’s gains come directly after a ‘halving’ event that occurs every four years.
“Estimates vary, but history indicates the next halving could occur sometime in April 2024,” Galindo detailed, reiterating: “Signs indicate that ‘crypto winter’ — bitcoin’s cyclical bear-market decline — may be in the past.”
The analyst concluded: “While no one can tell you if now is the right time to buy or sell cryptocurrency, today is the right time to learn more about the crypto market’s cyclical tendencies so that you can ask questions, monitor trends and determine for yourself if the cycle will repeat a fourth time and whether to invest.”
A growing number of individuals and analysts have expressed optimism regarding the outlook for bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market. In April, Standard Chartered Bank said crypto winter is over, predicting that the price of bitcoin could reach $100K next year. In March, the CEO of investment management firm Vaneck said: “We are at the very beginnings of what could be a several-year cycle” in gold and bitcoin. Crypto financial services platform Matrixport predicted this week that bitcoin’s price could surge to between $42K and $56K if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves Blackrock’s spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
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