In a recent note to investors, Fundstrat has forecasted a potential surge in the price of bitcoin to an astonishing $180,000 before its next block reward halving event in April 2024. The financial services company attributes this projected 521% price hike from current levels to the rising demand, fueled mainly by the anticipated approval of a bitcoin ETF.
Fundstrat Predicts Bitcoin ETF Approval Could Drive Price to $180,000 by 2024
Sean Farrell, who leads digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, explained in an investor note that the existing balance of $25 million in daily bitcoin (BTC) mining rewards and an equivalent amount in daily demand could see a substantial shift with the eagerly awaited green light for a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Fundstrat’s and Farrell’s projections follow the mid-July forecast from the banking giant Standard Chartered predicting a $120K bitcoin price by the end of 2024. Farrell’s analysis points to a bitcoin ETF potentially adding an extra $100 million in daily demand, while the impending halving will slash daily mining rewards down to a mere $12 million.
“[With a spot bitcoin ETF launch] daily demand will reach $125 million, while daily supply is only $25 million. The implicit equilibrium price would need to increase so that daily supply matches daily demand. Equilibrium analysis suggests a clearing price of $140,000 to $180,000 before the halving in April 2024,” Farrell explained.
Moreover, Fundstrat envisions the possibility for a Blackrock bitcoin ETF to become one of the most monumental ETF launches ever, possibly outstripping the QQQ ETF’s $36 billion in first-year inflows. The firm is of the opinion that bitcoin ETF assets might outshine precious metals ETFs — a market worth $230 billion — and “eventually become a category worth more than $300 billion.”
However, approval of a spot bitcoin ETF could enable manipulation akin to allegations about precious metals ETFs like GLD and SLV. A physically-backed Bitcoin ETF is expected to boost crypto adoption and prices. But there’s a chance it could mimic GLD and SLV in allowing leverage of alleged fictional BTC supplies to manage futures positions. When prices rise too fast, this imaginary bitcoin supply could be dumped to tamp global prices down.
For a while now, Fundstrat has been prophesying a leap into the six-digit territory for BTC prices, though these bold predictions have yet to materialize. Back in May 2021, David Grider, the firm’s chief digital asset strategist, confidently asserted that the target bitcoin price of “$100k per coin” remained “intact.” He further envisioned ethereum (ETH) scaling to $10K. Reflecting on the broader crypto landscape, Grider’s perspective from two years prior foresaw the entire crypto economy accelerating towards a staggering “$5 trillion” milestone.
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