This week, ETH reached a high of $2016, however, the second-largest cryptocurrency quickly rolled over and lost the $2K mark once again, and currently trades around $1800.
This analysis will try to highlight the necessary signals before a possible trend reversal.
Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis By Grizzly
The Daily Chart
In the last year, Ethereum has experienced several seasonal rallies. However, recent ones were much weaker than those of the previous year. With the ROC 30-D indicator added to the price chart, a break above the baseline has confirmed the beginning of an uptrend (in green).
The ROC is a momentum-based technical indicator that measures the percentage change between the current price and the price over the past 30 days. As can be seen, there is no positive signal yet, on behalf of this indicator, despite its low levels.
The ROC might be reanalyzed if ETH breaks above the resistance zone at $2200 – $2400. However, until that happens the bears are in complete control of the market. If the current level of $1700 doesn’t hold – ETH will most likely slip to the next range of support between $1300 and $1500.
Key Support Levels: $1700 & $1500
Key Resistance Levels: $2200 & $2400
MA20: $1959
MA50: $2486
MA100: $2713
MA200: $3140
The ETH/BTC Chart
The chart against the BTC pair does not reveal a different story, as the bears dominate the market, and attempt to push the price below the critical support level of 0.06 BTC (in blue). In this scenario, the price is likely to reach the next support line at 0.055 BTC (in orange).
Based on the chart, consolidating above the resistance at 0.065 BTC (in yellow) is the first step towards a possible trend reversal.
Key Support Levels: 0.060 BTC & 0.055 BTC
Key Resistance Levels: 0.065 BTC & 0.070 BTC
On-chain Analysis
Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) – 21D Moving Average
Definition: The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output.
As this metric moves below the baseline, investors realize in a loss. This metric has reached its lowest level since the Covid Crash of March 2020, indicating that capitulation is ongoing.
Looking at past performance, the index has often broken above the baseline during uptrends, this should be the first step in order for ETH to turn bullish again.
